The Corona Virus Pandemic (Covid-19), which started to outbreak in Wuhan City, Hubei Province-China, is now already spreading rapidly in 213 countries throughout the world with a total of 3,581,871 cases. Today, the USA becomes a country with the most significant number of cases, in fact, surpassing China, with a total of 1,188,421 cases and an average of new 500 new cases reported a day. It is followed by Spain and Italy at the second and third places, with a total of 247,122 cases and 210,717 cases, respectively.
Specifically, in Indonesia, based on data released by the government in an official website https://www.covid19.go.id/, per April 26, 2020, a number of covid-19 positive cases is 8,882 cases, with the addition of 279 new cases. From the total number, the mortality rate is 8.37%, while a recovered patient rate is 12,46%. In other words, from every 100 positive patients, 8 patients are dead, 13 patients are recovered, and the others are still hospitalized.
It is believed, however, the above figures are lower than the actual figures, due to the low testing rate in Indonesia. Per Saturday, April 11, 2020, based on data from worldmeter, from one million Indonesian people, only 65 of them were tested. This makes Indonesia the 4th worst country in the testing rate among countries with a population number of more than 50 million people. As is known, the total population of Indonesian people is now about 270 million people and is the 4th most dense country in the world. This is contrary to the fact that the neighboring countries, whose density rate is not half of Indonesia, their testing rate is already reaching thousands per one million people. Malaysia, for example, has tested 2,153 tests per 1 million people, Thailand 1,030 tests per 1 million people or even Singapore has tested 12,423 tests per 1 million people. However, the government is trying to continue to increase this capacity. Until April 26, 2020, the testing ratio has reached 211 people per 1 million population.
Based on the graphic shown above, it can be calculated that on average number of new cases increase twofold per 7 days. In other words, the number of new covid-19 cases in Indonesia forms an exponential function.
The rapid growth of new covid-19 cases in Indonesia is, among others, caused by the negligence of the people toward the efforts to prevent the spread of the virus. To some extent, the indecisiveness of the government to immediately take preventive actions and policies also become another factor that raises the spread of the virus.
By analyzing the existing data, it reveals that the addition of new cases is largely related to the average number of individuals who, by chance, met with the covid-19 patient (R) and the chance of the people possibly infected after got in touch with a covid-19 patient (P). Mathematically, from the total number of cases reported per April 26, 2020, the mean between new cases reported per day and the number of population of Indonesian is as follows: R is 15 persons, and P is 1%.
From this calculation, and considering the current condition of the people, we predict that the peak number of a covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia will occur on May 7, 2020, with a total of 12,949 cases; and it will end in the first week of July.
Undoubtedly, the number of cases above can be more or even less. Likewise, the duration can also be longer or shorter. It all depends on the readiness of the government and the people in dealing with this pandemic.
As explained above, the increasing number of covid-19 cases is largely influenced by the values of ‘R’ and ‘P.’ Thus, to limit new cases from appearing, the values of R and P must also be lessened or lowered. The smaller the values of ‘R’ and ‘P’ are, the smaller the lessening of new cases will occur every day. That is why the physical distancing and the social distancing –as been widely urged by many parties– are so important. It is because the smaller the intensity of someone to meet or gather, the smaller the chance for someone to transmit or be transmitted to the virus. Automatically, the number of cases will also decrease. Of course, this must start with us first.
Related to such a matter, definitely, in a country whose people are quite heterogeneous, both in term of social, economic, environmental aspects, or mindset, and so on, the role of the government is really needed to team up the actions for minimizing the spread of the pandemic. This is, among others, by imposing the social distancing, Large Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) or regional Quarantine as stipulated in the Law No.6 Year 2018 on Health Quarantine, and by imposing strict sanctions against people who violate these policies. Through such actions, then, it is hoped that this pandemic can end soon, and all aspects of life can be restored to normal.