PT. Visi Globalindo Data Utama has predicted that in the second quarter of 2019, the livestock sector will endure growth of 5% compared to the previous year. If compared with the previous period, it is predicted that there will be a decline in growth by 1.07 points. Based on the track record of 2018, during the first quarter of 2018, they faced an increase of 4.13%, whereas for the second quarter of 2018, growth of up to 6.07% occurred which happen to be influenced by the practice of fasting during Ramadan and Eid-Al-Fitr, as for the third quarter, there was a growth of 5.12%.
Based on the data published by Statistic of Indonesia (BPS) in 2018, the amount of cattle farms in Indonesia in 2017, were as much as 16 cattle breeding companies and 93 beef cattle cultivation companies. The value remains the same as in 2016.
Whereas, based on the products itself, the increase in growth during the first quarter of 2019 is affected by the rise of meat, milk and egg consumption in Indonesia. Based on the data from BPS, in 2018, there was a deficiency in beef supplies, to the point where they had to import 258,868 tons of beef to suffice the matter. There has been no information in regards to how many cows were slaughtered in 2018. Although in 2016, the number of cows slaughtered reached up to 1,163,459 heads and 1,114,748 heads in 2017. It is estimated that in 2018 there were around 1 million cows slaughtered, a part of that amount still supported by exported meat. In which case, we are able to see that the shortage of meat supply shows that local beef can entirely be absorbed by the market. However, if this situation persists, it will cause a problem towards the growth of the livestock sector in Indonesia, as the majority of its market will be dominated by imported products.
The Head of the Ministry of Agriculture’s Food Security Agency (Ministry of Agriculture) has stated that based on the results of the Coordinating Ministry of Economic, their technical coordination meeting regarding beef supply-demand in 2019, the estimated deficit or shortage is approximately 256,860 tons. It is predicted that even until 2020 the government will still need to constantly import cows. In 2018, approximately 386,94 cows were exported, 311.52 in 2019 and 222.13 in 2020. Self-sufficiency in meat is estimated to reach 2021 and for the first time ever, our country will face a meat surplus of 9.19 thousand tons.
Consequently, during the Ministry of Agriculture technical coordination meeting, the production objective of meat within the country in 2019 is set at the value of 429,412 tons, namely the same amount as the amount set for 2018. Meanwhile, the national demand for meat in 2019 is agreed upon at 2.57 per kg/ per capita/ per year (according to the review given by BPS), has gone up from 2.50 kg per capita in 2018. With the population in 2019 as many as 268.07 million, therefore the total demand for meat is approximately 686,270 tons. Meat imports imposed in the form of cattle will be 600,000 or equivalent to 119,976 tons, frozen beef for industries and hotel restaurant caterings will be 88,000 tons and buffalo meat will be 8,000 tons.