INDONESIAN ECONOMIC GROWTH IN Q2/2022 AMID THE DOUBLE INCREASE IN INFLATION RATE

INDONESIAN ECONOMIC GROWTH IN Q2/2022 AMID THE DOUBLE INCREASE IN INFLATION RATE

Based on economic growth up to Q1/2022, VISI predicts that in Q2/2022 it will experience growth in the range of 4.57-5.00%. This value has decreased when compared to the growth of the same period in 2021, which reached 7.07%. There are several factors that influence this growth.

Growth of National Economy in Q@-2022 in Indonesia

The increase in inflation reached 3.5% in Q2/2022. This inflation is much higher than inflation in the same period in 2021. Plus, the export ban for CPO also affects economic growth in Q2/2022. And there are still several factors that affect the forecast for economic growth in the quarter.

On the bright side, the controlled Covid-19 cases have reduced people’s concerns about shopping so that public consumption does not decline to a worse level. In addition, the government’s policy of loosening travel regulations during Eid has a positive impact on various things including the circulation of money and also certain business fields, such as transportation, accommodation, and food and beverages.

INFLATION GROWTH IN THE LAST FEW MONTHS

Based on data from Bank Indonesia (BI), there has been an increase in inflation since the beginning of 2022 and its peak in April 2022 reached 3.47%, it was even informed that in May 2022 it had reached 3.50%. This value is very significant when compared to the same period in 2021, with an increase of 244%.

Inflation growth in January to April 2021/2022 in Indonesia

High inflation will affect product prices on the market which can lead to a decrease in public consumption, especially when the quarter is included in the time of the celebration of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr, where product and raw material prices always increase. This moves inversely with the production costs that must be incurred by producers. Thus, causing expenditure to be out of balance with gains and producers experience a tendency to lose. In addition, the continuously increasing world CPO price is also one of the causes of rising inflation.

THE GROWTH OF RUPIAH AGAINST DOLLAR

On Wednesday, May 19, 2022, Bank Indonesia closed the rupiah exchange rate transaction at IDR 14,682 per USD. The value weakened 31 points or 0.21% from the previous day’s trading. Looking at developments in the past week, the rupiah exchange rate fluctuated in the range of 12-54 points. Each USD is trading at a high of IDR 14,534 and a low of IDR 14,682 per USD.

Growth USD to IDR 2022