Indonesiaʼs economic state during the end of the second half of 2019 is less likely to experience a significant increase. At the start of the year 2019, PT. Visi Globalindo Data Utama (VISI) predicted an economic growth rate of 5.11 percent of which is 0.4 points higher than the reality of Indonesiaʼs economic growth state, whilst according to The Central Bureau of Statistic, it was sitting at 5.07 percent in the first quarter of 2019. That rate has slipped to a much higher value than what the Government has predicted, which was 5.03 percent.
Based on the data stated above, PT. Visi Globalindo Data Utama has predicted that by the second semester of 2019, Indonesiaʼs economic growth will escalate of up to 5.08-5.19 percent. The stated value has evidently aligned with the Govermentʼs decision of cutting the growth projection in the second semester of 2019 at the level of 5.2 percent. There are numerous factors considered that has impacted this, one of them being external factors such as the trade war between the US and China, a global geopolitical conflict that resulted in a Brexit.
As Chinaʼs economic growth rate has weakened, it has impacted a domino effect towards Indonesia that has done many trade transactions with China. Nevertheless, based on the data stated by Bureau of Statistics, Indonesiaʼs export rates in June 2019 reached up to USD 11.78 billion which is equivalent to a decline of 20.54 percent in comparison to the export value in May 2019. As well as compared to the rate in June 2018, which showed a decline of 8.98 percent.
Meanwhile, Indonesiaʼs import value reached up to USD 11.58 billion or in other words, also declined 20.70 percent compared to May 2019. However, when compared to June 2018, it has increased by 2.80 percent. Until Indonesiaʼs trade scale experienced a surplus of up to USD 200 million. From a physical perspective, it is predicted to improve and quite possibly the Governmentʼs investments will strengthen the predicted improvement due to the continuum of infrastructure projects.
Governmental consumption this year has also increased up to 5.1 percent whereas it was sitting at only 4.8 percent in the previous year. Even though the projects implemented has slowed down, the value of this investment growth is predicted to reach a strong number alongside significant. To emphasize, the increase of political uncertainty that has cooled down post Presidential election