The livestock sector plays an important role for Indonesia’s economic growth. This sector is one of the sub-sectors that drive the development and absorbs a lot of workforces, especially in rural areas. Every year, the growth in the livestock sector continues to fluctuate.
Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) (2020), in 2015 the sector experienced a growth of 9.7% (yoy) or decreased by 0.42 points when compared to 2014. In 2016, the growth of this sector still decreased by 0.82 points, to 8.88% (yoy). The decrease was caused by a decrease in the population of chickens, cows, buffaloes and other animals. Along with the initiation of Estrus Synchronization and Artificial Insemination Program (GBIB) program, there was an increase in the population of quadrupeds and led to an increase in growth in 2017 by 0.75 points or to 9.63% (y-o-y). Not only this program, the government program in increasing the chicken population in Indonesia also contributed to the increase. However, in 2018 there was a decrease again by 2.61 points or to 7.02% (y-o-y). This decrease is far more significant than the decrease in the previous years. After the government’s countermeasures, in 2019 there was an increase in growth by 2.39 points or to 9.41% (y-o-y).
Meanwhile, based on the growth in 2020, the growth in this sector experienced a very drastic decrease due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Limited livestock activities and the cessation of operations of several farms due to reductions regarding the COVID-19 pandemic have resulted in a decrease in performance of more than 50% compared to 2019. Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) (2020), the average quarterly growth decrease in that sector amounted to 2.3%. The biggest decreases were in Q1/2020 and Q2/2020. In Q1/2020, there was a decrease in growth by 5.07 points or to 2.87% (y-o-y), while in Q2/2020 it decreased by 4.69 points or to -1.83% (y-o-y). With the regulatory updates related to the COVID-19 pandemic where several key sectors that essential to people are allowed to operate, there has been a recovery in growth of 1.67 points to -0.16% (y-o-y).
Based on data collection until Q3/2020, VISI predicts that in Q4/2020 the growth of the livestock sector will be -0.28% (y-o-y) and in Q1/2021 it will be -1.79% (y-o-y). This is based on economic conditions in Indonesia and business operations that have not fully recovered. Then, the closure or bankruptcy of several companies affected by the pandemic also caused a decrease in the target market of most active business actors, making it difficult for them to find new customers to cover the lack of demand from some of their closed or bankrupt customers. The persistently high supply prices were also one of the factors hampering this recovery.
Based on data from the Statistics Indonesia in 2019, the meat production of livestock (four-legged animals) is dominated by beef. The average beef production amounted to 491,570.71 tonnes p.a. In 2019, beef meat production reached 490,420.77 tonnes p.a. and it is predicted that it will continue to increase along with the increase in Indonesia’s population. As for other meats, lamb is the only meat that has experienced positive production growth from 2017 to 2019. It is predicted that it will continue to increase until 2023. For buffalo and pork, the growth is fluctuating, while goats and horses tend to decrease.