World Tin Demand
Based on published data from PT Timah (Persero) Tbk and the International Tin Association (ITA), it is known that world tin demand from 2012 to 2020 has fluctuated. The decline occurred in 2015 and 2020.
Meanwhile, from the region, the highest demand came from China, which reached more than 40% of the total world demand. From this data, it is estimated that in 2021 the world’s tin demand is predicted to increase again to reach 351,592-tons and by 2025 the demand is predicted to continue to increase to reach 355,391 tons.
Supply of Tin
Based on published data from the USGS Annual Mineral Commodity Summaries, it is known that the world’s tin reserves in 2010 reached 6 million tons. In the last 10 years the number has continued to decline in line with mining activities. Until 2020, it was reported that the world’s tin reserves amounted to 4.3 million tons. Meanwhile, in 2025 it is estimated that the number will continue to decline until the remaining 3.5 million tons. China is the country with the largest tin reserves reaching around 25% of the world’s total tin reserves, followed by Indonesia with around 18% of the world’s total tin reserves.
Meanwhile, of the total reserves only about 8% has been mined and produced or around 360 thousand tons of the world’s total tin production. Besides having the largest tin reserves, China is also the largest producer, reaching 51% of the world’s total tin production. Indonesia is in second place and Brazil is in third place with respective production of 14% and 12% of total world tin production.
Players in the Tin Industry
Based on data from the International Tin Association, as of 2019 PT Timah (Persero) Tbk became the world’s largest refined tin producer with a total production of 76,400 tons or 21% of the world’s total tin production. The following table shows the list of top 10 tin producers in the world:
Meanwhile, in 2020 PT Timah (Persero) Tbk was estimated to still be the largest tin producer in the world even though its production is estimated to decline by around 11% as compared to 2019.
From the second half of 2020 to March 2021, world tin prices continued to increase, in line with the increase in demand due to industrial recovery in China. In addition, the COVID–19 pandemic has also made the need for electronic goods even higher along with the implementation of work and study from home policies and lockdowns.
Based on data on the London Metal Exchange (LME), the increase in tin prices has occurred since July 2020 after previously experiencing a decline. The highest price was recorded on March 11, 2021, amounting to USD 30,995.00 per ton. Until April 19, 2021, the price of tin is still showing a positive trend with an average price of USD 27,000 per ton.
In the future, if the lockdown policy and work and study from home are still enforced, the possibility of price increases will still occur because tin demand, especially from the electronics sector, is still high. However, if community activities return to normal, the tin price is predicted to stagnate. Until the end of 2021, it is predicted that the price of tin will be stable in the range of USD 25,000 per ton.
Meanwhile, looking at the price development on an annual basis, the value has fluctuated over the last 10 years. The highest price was recorded in 2011, namely USD 26,053.68 per ton and the lowest price was recorded in 2015, namely USD 16,066.63 per ton.